Nepal's Earthquake Risk

The recent earthquake in Nepal, one of the poorest countries in the world, is a horrible disaster.  The potential for injuries, death, and destruction were well-known.  Coincidentally, last week, a student in my engineering decision making and risk management course submitted an assignment summarizing a 2000 report on this topic written by experts from Nepal and California.

The report is Amod M. Dixit, Laura R. Dwelley-Samant, Mahesh Nakarmi, Shiva B. Pradhanang, and Brian E. Tucker. "The Kathmandu Valley earthquake risk management project: an evaluation." Asia Disaster Preparedness Centre, 2000.
It can be found at http://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee/article/0788.pdf.
The report stated that "a devastating earthquake is inevitable in the long term and likely in the near future."  Indeed, the report cited data that earthquakes with magnitude of more than 8 on the Richter scale occur in that region approximately every 81 years.  The Nepal-Bihar earthquake (magnitude 8.2) was in 1934 (81 years ago).

The report described various factors that increase the earthquake risk in Nepal, including the high probability of liquefaction due to local soil conditions, poorly constructed dwellings that are more likely to fail and "a tendency in the general population to ignore the earthquake hazard due to more immediate needs."

The project described by the report emphasized awareness-raising as part of creating institutions that would work to reduce the earthquake risk.  Increasing awareness depended upon sharing information about the earthquake risk, including estimates about the potential loss of life.  The authors reported that this risk communication "did not create any panic in the population. It rather made a larger part of the society wanting to improve the situation. This leads us to believe that the traditional belief of possible generation of panic should not be used as an excuse for not releasing information on risk."

In addition to the report, additional information about the Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management project can be found online at
http://geohaz.org/projects/kathmandu.html.