How to build better models with end-user modeling

Many decision-makers rely upon analysts to build models for them, and they get involved in a back-and-forth with the analyst who is supporting the decision-maker by evaluating and ranking alternatives using a mathematical model (like decision analysis or optimization). This iteration (called decision calculus by John Little) can waste a lot time.

In some situations, a better option is end-user modeling, in which the decision-maker builds the model.  The approach is quantitative but not analytical, the style is quick and dirty, and the purpose is to gain insight into a decision or problem.  (Tom Grossman and Stephen Powell introduced this style of modeling, which exploits the power of spreadsheets.  Powell and Baker's textbook describes spreadsheet modeling in detail.)

The end-user modeling process, which accelerates the process of using models to understand a situation, has three steps: (1) plan the model (with the computer off); (2) program the model, and (3) craft the user interface.


For the planning stage, start by identifying the key relationships between the inputs and outputs, sketching the layout of a worksheet to calculate the outputs, and drawing the key charts and graphs that will provide the needed insight.

When programming, build the spreadsheet one section at a time, checking the each section works correctly, and using good spreadsheet programming techniques.

For the user interface, use color and formatting and comments to make it clear how to use the model (one can quickly forget after setting it down for awhile).  Clearly identifying the inputs, parameters, calculations, and outputs is very helpful.

As Grossman stated, end-user modeling gives one "the ability to roughly compute the effects of a proposed change ('what-if' modeling)" and "the ability to obtain quick, rough insight on actions that are likely to improve the business."

For further reading:

Grossman, Tom, "End-User Modeling," OR/MS Today, October 1997. Link: http://lionhrtpub.com/orms/orms-10-97/IiE.html

Little, John D.C., “Models and managers: the concept of a decision calculus,” Management Science, Volume 16, Number 8, pages B-466-485, 1970.  Link: http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0267

Powell, Stephen G. "The teachers' forum: From intelligent consumer to active modeler, two MBA success stories." Interfaces 27, no. 3 (1997): 88-98.  Link: http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/inte.27.3.88

Powell, Stephen G., and Kenneth R. Baker, The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey, 2004.  Link: http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-EHEP002883.html